Dennis Wheatley - Duke de Richleau 07 by The Second Seal

hinted at the existence of secret matters, unless he had excellent
cause to do so.
    In consequence
they had come to to-day’s lunch party still inclined to exercise great caution,
but with open minds. Then, as the meeting had progressed, those quick minds of
theirs had moved forward to the same conclusion. Sir Pellinore was right; De
Richleau was a man who might render incalculably valuable services to Britain
if he were properly briefed. It was, therefore, their duty, short of disclosing
vital secrets, to take him into their confidence.
    One quick glance
between Sir Bindon and the General was enough to assure the diplomat that they
were in agreement. Then he said:
    “Very well,
Duke. What do you wish to know?”
    “First, the
probable line-up.”
    “If Serbia sets
the ball rolling, as you suggest, it will be Serbia. Russia, and the Empires of
France and Britain against Austria-Hungary and Germany.”
    “What about
Italy?”
    “As the third
partner in the Triple Alliance the Germans are no doubt counting on her; but a
secret clause in her treaty with the Central Powers releases her from any
obligation to enter a war against Great Britain, and we think she will invoke
it. Owing to her ambitions in the Trentino and Trieste area, she may later even
come in on our side, if we play our cards skilfully.”
    “And the smaller
countries?”
    “The probability
is that, with the exception of Belgium, they will stay out unless the struggle
is a prolonged one.”
    “It will be,” grunted
the General.
    “In that case,
Bulgaria, Rumania, Greece and Turkey will probably be drawn in. Each has its
pro-Entente and pro-German parties; so the side each takes will be determined
by the apparent prospects of victory of one or other of the great combinations
at the time that circumstances decide them to enter the conflict.”
    “You mentioned
Belgium as an exception?”
    “Yes. We have
reason to believe that, instead of attempting to force the great fortress
system that guards the Franco-German frontier, the Germans intend to adopt the
Schlieffen Plan. That involves the infringement of Belgian neutrality; and, of
course, as Britain is one of the signatories of the Treaty of London,
guaranteeing Belgium neutrality; such an act would commit us to sending an ultimatum
to Germany, quite apart from any obligation we may have to aid France.”
    De Richleau
turned towards the General. “How many divisions do you estimate that Germany
will be able to put in the field for the opening phase?”
    “When her
mobilization is completed, one hundred and ten,” replied Sir Henry promptly.
    “And France?”
    “Eighty-five.”
    “However, the
French have only one frontier to defend, whereas Germany has two. That should
even matters up as far as the Western Front is concerned.”
    With a quick
movement, Sir Henry knocked the ash off his cigar. “Sir Bindon has just
mentioned the Schlieffen Plan. As a military man, Duke, you will no doubt have
heard of that plan and be aware of its broad outline?”
    “Yes. Its
essence is the immediate concentration of all available forces in the West;
then a gigantic turning movement for the invasion of France by way of Belgium.”
    “Exactly! Field
Marshal Count von Schlieffen was completely ruthless and entirely logical. He
said that, even if Russia unexpectedly declared war and her cavalry overran the
provinces of northern Germany, even if the French took the offensive and
penetrated deep into Alsace-Lorraine, even if the invasion of Belgium meant
Britain going to France’s assistance—all these liabilities must be accepted in
order to bring overwhelming force against the French Army, and put France out
of the war in six weeks. However, now that Russia is definitely committed to
declare war immediately France does so, Germany cannot possibly leave her
northern frontier entirely undefended; but we believe she will adopt a
modification of the Schlieffen plan. Our estimate is that the Germans will
leave